The explosion of online shopping hasn’t just changed how we buy things – it’s completely transformed the world of parcel logistics. As we step into 2025, the changes we’re witnessing are reshaping the entire logistics industry.
Right now, everyone sees both opportunities and challenges, spurred by continued growth in online shopping, technological innovation, and increasing consumer expectations.
Speaking to a couple of industry experts, we have narrowed down the key trends that are defining the future of of global courier, express, and parcel (CEP) service providers over the next 12 months below.
Trend 1: Continued Parcel Volume Increase due to E-commerce & Online Delivery Growth
Online shopping continues to surge beyond our expectations. With a projected 7% year-over-year growth in parcel deliveries, we’re seeing fundamental changes in how logistics companies operate. This isn’t just about handling more packages – it’s about transforming the infrastructure with more automation, streamlined international shipping processes, and enhanced delivery capabilities.
Examples include increasing hub and depot automation, expanding cross-border partnerships with local carriers, and leveraging digital platforms to manage customs processes more efficiently.
Trend 2: Increasing Cross-Border E-commerce, fueled by Chinese low Cost Goods
The barriers of international shopping are rapidly dissolving. Platforms like Temu and Shein have made cross-border shopping as commonplace as buying from local retailers. In Europe, nearly half of online shoppers are purchasing from Chinese sellers. This shift is pushing logistics companies to excel in international operations, from customs clearance to managing cultural differences.
With billions of parcels crossing borders annually, investing in efficient customs clearance processes is critical. But also integrating solutions for transparent cross-border tracking, and offering more delivery progress transparency and advanced customer support.
Trend 3: Growing Customer Demand for Faster and Hyperlocal Deliveries, Especially in Large Cities
The expectations for delivery speed and returns convenience have further increased. DHL’s 2024 Delivery and Returns Report still provides some interesting insights into online shopper preferences across 24 countries, based on a survey of 12,000 consumers. Key findings included that 61% of global shoppers desire next-day delivery but are unwilling to pay extra for it.
Same-day delivery is valued more than in the last years, and companies are innovating to meet this demand. Also former startups like Uber Freight and DoorDash have ventured into parcel delivery to supplement traditional logistics networks.
Establishing micro-fulfillment centers in residential areas on the one hand, or considering alternative models like leveraging crowdshipping and gig-economy partnerships for flexible delivery options might be options.
Trend 4: Demand for Delivery Flexibility and Out-of-Home (OOH) Options when Receiving and Returning
Missing deliveries probably isn’t becoming a thing of the past. Still, the rise of alternative delivery points – from Amazon lockers over DHL Packstations to Alibaba’s Cainiao smart lockers in China – is transforming how we receive packages with greater flexibility while alleviating the strain on last-mile networks. By 2025-2026, over 20 billion packages are expected to flow through these convenient pickup points, giving consumers unprecedented control over their deliveries.
Also, DHL’s 2024 Delivery and Returns Report linked above surfaces that in Europe, 3 in 5 shoppers return items via parcel shops or lockers, indicating an increase of out-of-home returns.
Open or agnostic locker networks, shared by multiple logistics operators, are gaining traction. For example, DPD and GLS co-operating in Germany.
Trend 5: Innovation in Smart Packaging Unlocking Improved Real-Time Tracking for All
As real-time tracking is becoming the norm, proactive communication are also crucial for improving customer satisfaction, ensuring transparency, and reducing the anxiety associated with waiting for parcels and corresponding customer support tickets and costs.
Packages equipped with IoT-enabled sensors can monitor product conditions, provide real-time tracking, and alert stakeholders to issues such as temperature fluctuations or tampering during transit. This innovation is particularly beneficial for sensitive goods like pharmaceuticals and perishable items.
Therefore package tracking is evolving beyond simple location updates. Companies like FedEx are pioneering this technology with their SenseAware program, ensuring sensitive shipments receive the care they need throughout their journey. Also Maersk’s reefer containers are already equipped with remote temperature control for perishable cargo.
Trend 6: Chance for Sustainable and Eco-Friendly Delivery Networks that are also More Cost-Efficient
Sustainability has moved from a nice-to-have to a must-have in logistics. The CEP industry is embracing new packaging solutions that are using recyclable materials and right-sized packaging to cut down on waste, including biodegradable materials from innovators like Notpla.
When delivery is due, AI-powered route optimization, with systems like UPS’s ORION leading the way, can support in increasing both customer success as well as sustainability. UPS’s ORION system is a prominent example of using AI for route optimization.
Of course also incorporating electric vehicle fleets, exemplified by Amazon’s partnership with Rivian. Driven by consumer demand for eco-friendly practices and regulatory pressures to reduce carbon emissions, major players like FedEx, UPS, and DHL are rapidly integrating EVs into their fleets.
Finally, efficient reverse logistics systems are also essential for handling returns, which are a significant pain point in e-commerce. 41% of online shoppers will only purchase from retailers that offer free returns, highlighting the importance of streamlining return to offer this service at competitive rates for your customers.
Strategies such as reverse shipping labels, dedicated drop-off locations, and refurbishment processes streamline returns while maintaining sustainability. For instance, Zalando’s partnership with different logistics providers ensures streamlined returns management across Europe.
Trend 7: Explosion of Near-AGI Models and Vertical AI Agents also Leveraged across CEPs
Artificial intelligence is revolutionizing every industry. From predicting order patterns to optimizing delivery routes and enhancing customer service, AI is becoming an integral part of every logistics operation.
The most popular applications of AI might be seen in the areas of Demand Prediction, Route Optimization, and Customer Support:
- Analyzing historical data and market trends to forecast demand, ensuring resources are allocated effectively is becoming easier. Not only in peak seasons, but throughout the entire year.
- AI-driven algorithms help identify the most efficient delivery routes, reducing costs and delivery times. Startups like Routific are providing innovative solutions for this.
- Personalizing interactions and proactively addressing issues before they arise with chatbots powered by AI, like those used by many companies today, improve customer experience across the entire process.
Trend 8: More Pilots for Autonomous Vehicles and Drones, Especially Outside of Europe
While we’re not quite living in a sci-fi future, autonomous delivery is gaining some more traction, especially in regions with flexible regulations. Early adopters may include China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Australia, the UAE and other countires, especially in remote regions.
Amazon Prime Air and Zipline are key players testing drone delivery programs. Also Nuro in the U.S. and various operators in China are pioneering self-driving delivery vehicles and drone services, showing us glimpses of tomorrow’s delivery landscape.
However, widespread adoption will depend on improving reliability and load capacity, but primarily overcoming challenges such as regulatory compliance, infrastructure readiness, and public acceptance.
Looking Ahead
The evolution of parcel logistics isn’t simply about moving packages faster – it’s about creating an intelligent, sustainable, and efficient delivery ecosystem that works for all parties involved.
As we continue through 2025, these innovations aren’t just changing the CEP industry – they’re setting new standards for what’s possible in the world of logistics and delivery. Companies that invest in innovative solutions today — from AI-powered tools to eco-friendly practices and customer-centric services — will not only thrive but also shape the future of the industry.